"How can you be so sure?"
Wilkie leaned forward instinctively, trying to get closer to Neil. Frederick, on the other hand, was already used to Neil's various analyses. He lazily poured himself another cup of hot coffee, stirred in some milk, and quietly watched Neil perform.
"Half a century ago, the Republican Party's stronghold — that is, urban Catholic white-collar workers and industrial laborers — have now largely shifted to the Democratic Party, which is calling for comprehensive New Deal-style reforms, due to widespread unemployment. Am I right or wrong?"
Neil had newspapers too, though only the local kind. But even those carried political commentary, analyzing how the Democratic Party's platform in this midterm election resonated strongly with voters. Meanwhile, the Republican Party was still dragging its feet, sticking to its old rhetoric about the free market.
The reality in America now was severe overproduction, requiring strong government regulation to reduce surplus and increase employment. Yet the Hoover administration had made a series of blunders that led to devastating blows to exports. Major countries around the world had reduced their imports from the U.S.
This only worsened domestic overproduction in the U.S.!
"So you think the current government has lost the people's support?" Wilkie sounded uncertain.
"If they had implemented measures at the very beginning of the crisis, they might have been able to maintain control. But now, with less than two years left in the President's term, what motivation does he have left?" Neil's analysis was realistic.
It was just like what Sir Humphrey said in the British sitcom Yes, Minister: if a minister's policy can be delayed long enough, by their final year in office, they won't be able to do anything meaningful — all their attention will turn toward re-election, to secure their party's continued rule.
Christmas was just around the corner, and Hoover didn't even have a full two years left. Even if he were to proactively roll out new policies now, gathering consensus within the Republican Party and carefully considering the situation of all social classes in America, it would take at least a year for the policies to be implemented. And by then? The election would be right around the corner — how would he have the mind to focus on reforms?
Getting re-elected was the real top priority!
That was the advantage of the Democratic Party. Being in the opposition, they could craft targeted policy goals and promote them widely to voters. Whether those goals could actually be achieved didn't matter. If they got into office, they could try to fulfill their promises and win favor. If they didn't win, well — why bother implementing policies you didn't get elected to carry out?
Even more crucial — and a truth about human nature — was this: even if the Republican Party rolled out a series of new policies now to rescue the economy and support the people, the effects wouldn't be felt for at least another two or three years.
And if someone else were in power by then? Why should I plant the tree so others can enjoy the shade?
Here's a vivid example: When Chen Shui-bian was elected mayor of Taipei, his actual performance was mediocre. But first, the Pan-Blue coalition was in disarray, and second, he inherited many popular policies from the previous KMT mayor. That immediately made him look like a "mayor who truly worked for the people," eventually launching him into the presidential race.
His true nature has been revealed by countless investigations — no need to elaborate further. Though the one who came after him, Tsai, was even worse and less competent — but that's a story for another time.
"What you said makes sense…" Wilkie thought for a moment, then nodded.
"Just my personal opinion," Neil said, finally sitting down.
"But I won't deny it — you've convinced me."
Wilkie got up and started pacing. He wasn't a Republican congressman, nor did he plan to run for New York governor. But he was a long-time Republican supporter and a significant donor. He had deep ties to the Republican Party — family, social networks, friendships — he truly cared about the party.
"Is a change in power really so bad? At least some old fossils would be pushed out, making room for new faces," Frederick suddenly interjected.
"Huh? Oh, hahaha…" Wilkie was stunned at first, then burst into laughter.
One sentence — and it made a 38-year-old man laugh for three minutes!
Frederick had a point: the Republican Party had been in power for too long. Those in power were mostly old-timers, making it difficult for newcomers to rise. But if the party were to lose the election, those old figures would lose their influence and be abandoned by voters, thereby losing their voice within the party.
A figure like Dewey — popular among voters, always appearing as a young, energetic, anti-corruption hero close to the people — would become a rising star and leader within the Republican Party.
For the GOP, this might not be a bad thing at all. In fact, it could be a good thing — like cutting out the rot so healthy tissue can grow back.
"Frederick is absolutely right!" Neil agreed, laughing as well.
And so, Wilkie's visit to Neil's home had fulfilled — and even exceeded — its purpose. Perhaps it was exactly people like Neil and Frederick, grassroots figures who truly understood local sentiment, that the Republican Party most needed right now.
Dinner was ready. Since there was nothing else to do, Frederick stayed and joined the meal, keeping Wilkie company. The whole family enjoyed a warm, rustic meal together — Wilkie wasn't picky at all, eating heartily and happily.
It wasn't until dessert that Wilkie remembered he had serious business to discuss with Neil and Frederick. He had brought with him a report from his private office regarding the film industry — specifically, investment and management opportunities.
According to his findings, there was no need to directly invest in an entire film company at the moment, because most of them were still quite small. If they followed Frederick's idea and threw in $200,000–300,000 all at once, they might even buy the whole company outright.
But — could the two of them actually manage a film company? Would they even want to?
Of course not! Neil and Frederick had their own careers. They weren't about to move to Hollywood to run a movie studio. Even if they went with a holding company approach and kept the original team, let's be honest — people are unpredictable. What if the staff transferred the assets, tanked the company, and then started a new one for themselves? What could you do?
These film companies might have some brand awareness now, but nowhere near the established brand power seen in future eras. Changing the company name? No big deal.
Instead of watching their money vanish, Wilkie suggested a better strategy: target a few promising production companies and invest in specific films. He promised — hand on heart — that he'd draft fair investment contracts. That was his area of expertise.
If the movie made money, they'd get dividends. If it flopped — well, bad luck.