January 2022 – June 2024
When the calendar turned to 2022, Pakistan was already feeling the tremors of a looming economic downturn: the rupee had crossed 178 to the U.S. dollar, international oil prices were spiralling upward after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the coalition government in Islamabad was in a fragile dance with the International Monetary Fund over a stalled Extended Fund Facility.¹ Dewan Group's new leadership team—Batool Qureshi, Ahsan Mehmood, and Danish Farooqui—had barely begun to steady the ship when the macro‑storm made landfall.
Scene 1 – Early Warnings
In the glass‑walled war‑room on the 10th floor of Dewan House, Karachi, Batool tapped a Bloomberg chart projected on the screen.
> Batool: "Brent is at $122, the rupee at 188, and SBP reserves below $10 billion. Import LCs for CKD kits are being refused. If we can't assemble cars, our revenue pipeline is dead by Q3."
Ahsan, sleeves rolled, scrolled his tablet.
> Ahsan: "It's systemic. The State Bank is rationing dollars. Textile exporters are screaming too. We need a contingency—local parts, alternative markets, anything."
> Danish: "Cement is suffering from coal prices. We locked in two Panamax cargoes at $240 per tonne. That alone wipes our Q2 margin."
Batool exhaled. "Call an emergency board. Tonight."
Scene 2 – A Board under Siege
That night, the board dialled in on Zoom—load‑shedding had knocked out the in‑person meeting. Chairman Yousuf Dewan, voice gravelled but determined, opened bluntly.
> Yousuf: "This is 2008 on steroids. You three asked for the helm; now you must steer through a hurricane. What's the ask?"
Ahsan laid out the numbers: a ₹25 billion liquidity gap over the next twelve months, triggered by raw‑material cost spikes, blocked letters of credit, and a 30 percent drop in domestic cement demand after the government froze PSDP spending.
> Batool: "We propose a three‑pillar defence: (1) halt all non‑essential cap‑ex, (2) negotiate a short‑term rupee working‑capital line with Meezan Bank under Shariah, and (3) initiate aggressive localisation—50 percent local content in Dewan Motors by year‑end."
> Yousuf: "And layoffs?"
Silence, then Danish spoke.
> Danish: "We'll start with overtime elimination, not heads. Morale can't take another cut."
Scene 3 – The Government No‑Objection Maze
February 2022: the team flew to Islamabad for a meeting with Miftah Ismail, the returning finance czar negotiating with the IMF. The venue: Q‑block, Pak Secretariat, its corridors abuzz with reporters.
> Miftah: "Look, Batool, every group is pleading for dollars. The IMF wants us to end subsidies; the people want relief. I can't print banknotes. If you have export proceeds, bring them; we'll let you open LCs."
> Batool: "Our exports are in cement and yarn. Payments come in 60 days. We need CKD today."
> Miftah (grim): "Prioritise medicine and food. Cars must wait."
Ahsan tried a different tack.
> Ahsan: "Then fast‑track our solar‑panel import. We'll cut grid load by 20 percent at the plant."
> Miftah: "Write me a self‑financed proposal with net‑savings data. I'll consider it."
Scene 4 – Conspiracy over Currency
April 2022: a leaked audio clip surfaced on YouTube. A man sounding like Danish discussing "parking dollars in Dubai" until "the rupee hits 220." ARY and Geo pounced.
Headline: "Dewan Group Betting against Pakistan?"
The clip was doctored—the timeline wrong, words spliced. But perception stuck. SECP announced an inquiry. Social media raged. #DollarMafia trended.
In an austere press room, Danish faced reporters.
> Danish: "We have never hoarded FX offshore. The clip is fake. We're cooperating with SECP to prove it."
Privately, Yousuf told him:
> Yousuf: "Enemies smell blood. Stay silent, provide documents. Truth is quieter than lies."
Scene 5 – Floods and Factory Floors
June–August 2022: unprecedented monsoon floods submerged a third of Pakistan. Dewan Cement's Hattar plant was safe, but supply routes weren't. Roads vanished; gypsum quarries flooded.
Inside the logistics control room, GPS screens were red.
> Operations Chief: "Raw materials stuck outside Sukkur. Rail line washed away."
> Faraz: "Divert to the Karachi port, ship by barge to Hub, then truck north. Costly, but we ship or we fail."
The board approved relief funds: Dewan trucks delivered 2,000 ration packs to Dadu, earning media goodwill amid disaster.
Scene 6 – Interest‑Rate Shock
In November 2022 the SBP policy rate hit 16 percent; by June 2023 it would sit at 22. Dewan's finance cost doubled.
At a Faisal Bank negotiation, Khalid argued for a rollover.
> Faisal Bank RM: "Your leverage is 5× EBITDA. We can't refinance at old spreads."
> Khalid: "We offer additional collateral—Dewan City Phase 2 land."
> RM: "Land values are falling. Need personal guarantees."
Khalid refused; talks stalled. Cash burned.
Scene 7 – The Leadership Crossroads
February 2023, a candle‑lit strategy off‑site in Murree (load‑shedding again). Batool proposed splitting Dewan Motors into a JV with a Chinese EV giant, BYD, which was scouting Pakistan.
> Batool: "We trade 51 percent for technology and $35 million cash. Smartphones did it; why not cars?"
Danish countered, "We lose control, brand, maybe jobs."
Ahsan sided with Batool. "Control of 49 percent of something scaling is better than 100 percent of stagnation."
Yousuf listened, then nodded slowly. "Draft the term sheet."
Scene 8 – A Surprise Lifeline
May 2023: IFC completed due diligence from the 2020 pitch. Despite macro chaos, they agreed to a $30 million quasi‑equity injection into Dewan Cement for waste‑heat recovery and solar integration—contingent on governance reforms and ESG milestones.
Batool signed the term sheet on a stormy Karachi night.
> Batool (to Ahsan): "One candle in a blackout."
Scene 9 – Lessons in Humility
By December 2023, Dewan Motors assembled only 6,200 units—down from 18,000 in 2019. Yet the EV JV was progressing. Cement posted a modest profit on energy savings. The real‑estate arm sold non‑core plots, trimming debt.
In a town‑hall livestream, Yousuf addressed 4,000 employees.
> Yousuf: "We've been giants, we've been underdogs. But history is written by those who stay on the field."
He then did what few founders do: apologized.
> Yousuf: "If pride blinded us to risk, forgive us. We start over—together."
Tears, applause, resolve.
Scene 10 – A New Economic Reality
January 2024: Pakistan signed a $3 billion SBA with the IMF. The rupee stabilised near 279; SBP reserves climbed above $9 billion. LCs opened—cautiously. Energy tariffs still climbed, but uncertainty eased.
Batool presented the 2024–26 vision:
1. EV Partnership signed Q2 2024.
2. Cement Solar + WHR fully online Q3 2025.
3. Digital Rental Platform for cars and fleet by 2026, leveraging app economy.
4. Debt‑to‑EBITDA below 3× by 2026.
Ahsan closed with a quote from Rumi:
> "The wound is the place where the light enters you."
Final Reflection
Chapter 31 captures an empire navigating macroeconomic headwinds: currency collapse, rate shocks, floods, and political churn. But inside those winds, new leaders learned to bend, not break—to turn crisis into curriculum.
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Question for Readers: When external storms batter a legacy business, what matters more—financial engineering or cultural resilience? How would you weather such headwinds?