December 15, 1995
Washington, D.C., USA
It was late at night, but the White House was brightly lit and bustling with urgency as the deadline for the budget agreement loomed just a few hours away.
Inside the Oval Office, the official workspace of President Clinton, four men were seated together, with the illuminated Rose Garden visible through the large windows.
Seated at the center of the plush sofa, President Clinton surveyed the men on either side of him with a stern expression before speaking.
"There's still no word. It looks like the negotiations are proving difficult."
Chief of Staff Huxley, after gauging the atmosphere, responded cautiously.
"Senior Advisor Wood and Senator Edwards are personally meeting with Speaker Savitz to persuade him. We should be hearing good news soon."
"Tsk. I hope so, but knowing Speaker Savitz and his stubbornness, I have my doubts that he'll even listen."
Secretary of State Milburn, seated on the left, set down his coffee cup and smoothly joined the conversation.
"Speaker Savitz has been taking a hardline stance, but with next year's presidential election approaching—and given that we already had one shutdown in November—it would be too much of a burden to shut down the federal government again."
"That's right. Public sentiment is already unfavorable. It won't be easy for him to push forward recklessly."
Unlike Secretary Milburn and Chief of Staff Huxley, who seemed optimistic, Treasury Secretary Frank maintained a cautious stance.
"That may be true, but we still need to prepare for the worst-case scenario."
President Clinton turned to Secretary Milburn, his voice slightly subdued.
"Are the emergency measures fully prepared?"
"Yes. If the budget isn't passed by midnight, 800,000 federal employees will immediately be placed on temporary unpaid leave. However, essential personnel in national defense, law enforcement, utilities, and other critical services related to protecting public safety and property will continue working despite the shutdown."
"They'll continue working, but their salaries will be paid retroactively once the budget passes, correct?"
"That's right."
President Clinton nodded, arms crossed.
"If a shutdown happens, we need to resolve it as quickly as possible to minimize the damage."
At that moment, Treasury Secretary Frank spoke with a grave expression.
"A halt in government operations is concerning, but the bigger issue is that if we fail to raise the federal debt ceiling in time, the United States could face a potential national default."
Last month, after the first shutdown, the Republican Party had agreed to a temporary one-month budget along with a slight increase in the debt ceiling.
But the increase was minimal—just enough to delay an imminent default by a short while.
"Without raising the debt ceiling, how long can we hold out?"
Upon hearing the President's question, Treasury Secretary Frank responded with a grim expression.
"We've been implementing emergency measures, such as delaying planned government expenditures, to conserve as much fiscal resources as possible. However, by early February next year, our cash reserves will be completely depleted."
There were still more than two months left, and even if a second government shutdown occurred, most believed it wouldn't last too long.
Still, it wasn't a situation where they could afford to be complacent.
"There's no way we'll actually reach a default, but just in case, monitor our cash reserves closely and manage the situation on a daily basis."
"Understood."
Just then, the intercom on the side table rang. President Clinton extended an arm and pressed the button.
"What is it?"
[Senior Advisor Ben Wood is on the line.]
Expecting the call, President Clinton immediately responded.
"Put him through."
[Yes, sir.]
After a brief pause, the phone rang again.
President Clinton switched to speakerphone so that everyone in the room could hear.
"Hello."
A heavy voice came through the speaker—Ben Wood, the Senior Advisor who had also served as campaign director during the last election.
[I know you've been waiting, but I'm sorry to say I don't have good news.]
The words were far from what President Clinton had hoped for. His eyebrows furrowed.
"They couldn't reach an agreement?"
[Senator Edwards and I did everything we could to persuade Speaker Savitz, but he's taken an extremely hardline stance. He insists that the Republican Party will not back down even a single step from their proposed budget.]
"That stubborn fool!"
President Clinton snapped, his frustration boiling over.
[He's also refusing to pass even a temporary funding bill to prevent a government shutdown. I believe you should prepare for the shutdown, Mr. President.]
"Damn it. Understood."
After ending the call, President Clinton ran a hand through his hair, his face twisted in irritation.
"That damn Speaker Savitz and the GOP are playing another round of chicken."
Secretary of State Milburn, looking deeply concerned, spoke up.
"If they're rejecting even the temporary budget, it means the Republicans are already prepared for a shutdown. What will you do now, Mr. President?"
The question was clear: Would he back down and accept the Republican budget to avoid a shutdown?
Or would he continue to stand firm, even if it meant facing the unprecedented scenario of two federal shutdowns in a single year?
Either option carried enormous political risks—not just for the Republican Party, but for President Clinton himself.
All eyes in the room were now on him.
As the crushing weight of the decision pressed down on him, Clinton felt his irritation flare up.
The GOP's relentless brinkmanship, constantly pushing him to the edge of the cliff, was infuriating.
A cynical smirk twisted at the corner of his lips.
"I won't go down without a fight."
"But..."
"By cutting funding for key social programs ahead of next year's election and handing over control of Medicaid to the states, they're clearly trying to gain the upper hand and tarnish my reputation. We can't just dance to their tune, can we?"
With consecutive government shutdowns, the administration was facing instability, and public sentiment was far from favorable.
However, the ongoing standoff with the Republicans wasn't merely about budget disputes—it was effectively a prelude to the upcoming presidential election.
Everyone in the room, including Secretary of State Milburn, understood this well, which is why no one dared to suggest backing down so easily, despite their concerns.
"If we enter a second shutdown, the administration will certainly take some blame. But the Republican Party, with its extreme hardline stance pushing the situation to the brink, will face the harshest criticism."
The media reports and poll results already showed more public outrage directed at the Republican Party, and the attendees nodded slightly in agreement.
"Thinking about it that way, a second shutdown might not be entirely bad."
President Clinton then turned to Chief of Staff Huxley.
"Still, a prolonged federal shutdown won't do anyone any good. Keep backchannel discussions going with the Republicans and try to find a compromise."
"Understood."
He then shifted his gaze to Secretary of State Milburn and continued.
"You and Frank should focus on keeping the federal government as functional as possible."
"We will do our best."
Milburn responded with a heavy expression.
By this point, President Clinton and his aides had already accepted the shutdown as inevitable.
However, none of them could have predicted that this second shutdown would last a staggering 21 days, breaking the record for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
* * *
The next morning
It was Saturday, but since the five-day workweek hadn't yet been fully implemented, Seok-won was getting ready for work as usual.
"Hmm..."
Standing in front of a large full-length mirror in his spacious walk-in closet, he held up two ties, struggling to decide which one to wear.
He alternated between them, holding each against his collar, but both looked equally good, making the choice difficult.
Both were new releases from Gucci, and his closet was overflowing with unworn clothes and accessories.
Tom Ford, Gucci's chief designer, frequently sent him new products, and as a result, nearly half of his walk-in closet was now filled with Gucci items.
Not just men's accessories, but women's handbags as well—which he had gifted to his mother, Jo Deok-rye, and his sister-in-law.
Both had been thrilled with the gifts. While they could easily afford any Gucci bag, they were especially delighted to have exclusive pre-release items that hadn't yet launched domestically.
"Now that I think about it, Mom has been carrying that Gucci bag I gave her everywhere lately..."
Smiling faintly, Seok-won finally chose a black silk tie with a subtle Gucci logo, opting for a classic and understated look.
As he adjusted the knot in the mirror,
Tring! Tring!
Turning away from the mirror, Seok-won left the walk-in closet and picked up his phone from the desk.
It was a call from Landon.
Given the time difference, it was late at night in the U.S.—meaning there could only be one reason for this call.
Gripping his phone firmly, he got straight to the point.
"Do we have the results of the negotiations?"
[Senior White House Adviser Ben Wood and Senator Edwards tried late into the night to persuade Speaker of the House Savitz, but as you expected, the negotiations failed.]
Seok-won remained calm, unfazed by the predictable outcome.
"So, once midnight passes in Washington, the shutdown will officially begin."
[That's correct.]
"By now, Wall Street must have gotten wind of the news. How's the market reacting?"
The political implications of the shutdown were for Washington to handle. What mattered to Seok-won was how the New York Stock Exchange was responding—especially since he had placed massive short positions.
[Perhaps due to the lessons learned from the last shutdown, the market hasn't shown any major reaction yet.]
"That makes sense. Last time, plenty of traders who went short got burned and had to pack up their desks. No one's willing to make a rash move now."
[That's right. But what's promising is that, unlike the previous shutdown, where the market held strong, this time stock prices are showing slight weakness.]
"What about gold prices?"
[Gold is also holding steady, as if waiting to see what happens.]
At this, a faint smile appeared on Seok-won's lips.
"If investors are hesitant, that means they're already feeling uneasy. That's good news for us."
[Exactly. If even a small spark ignites panic, it could trigger a wave of sell-offs and drive prices down sharply.]
"Keep monitoring the situation closely, and let me know if there are any developments."
[Understood.]
Then, as if remembering something, Landon added:
[Oh, and as per your instructions, we're starting to unwind our yen positions today.]
"Go ahead with it."
The yen's depreciation was expected to continue deep and long, meaning holding onto the position could yield even greater profits.
However, with 10x leverage in play, maintaining the position was becoming costly. More importantly, the IMF crisis was looming, making it a strategic time to lock in profits and exit the yen trade.